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Nov 4, 2012
11/12
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caller: i voted for john mccain. guest: there is a difference between pollsters and the republican polls. when we are wrong in our numbers, our clients lose and we do not get new clients. we are careful in how we are analyzing the survey. with the public polls, they have a different goal. the more they generate stories, the better it is. we have moved back to a 2004. so many of our stories are generated by pulling numbers as opposed to being generated by the campaign. i differ in terms of controlling on party. they do not control for party. you have seen in a short period of time, party identification jumping a good 10 points. you are generating a story rather than generating reality in terms of polling. all of the polls start coming back to the center. that is with the averaging does work. as you get closer to the election, surveys have a new ones because of the weighting on party. in 2008, we ended up with five polls that were exactly the same. guest: has citizen united affected the outcome? absolutely. it has made
caller: i voted for john mccain. guest: there is a difference between pollsters and the republican polls. when we are wrong in our numbers, our clients lose and we do not get new clients. we are careful in how we are analyzing the survey. with the public polls, they have a different goal. the more they generate stories, the better it is. we have moved back to a 2004. so many of our stories are generated by pulling numbers as opposed to being generated by the campaign. i differ in terms of...
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Nov 5, 2012
11/12
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john mccain got over 60 percent. that raises the threshold of the cross will reject crossover votes that he needs to survive. he is very much in the game. i think it will be tough to come -- overcome the top of the ticket impact. neveda, the type of district they should be challenging and. this is a clark county district. a place where democrats should be doing very well. democrats are having a troubled time. the democratic nominee is a former leader in the state house. even areas this position, his advertisements are talking about his record as a firefighter. they're not even mentioning he is a politician because that is not a label you want to have. if democrats are having a better night than we expect, they would need to do better in this type of district. >> california is a solid blue states for the president. a couple of interesting house races. >> california weaken normally ignore. there really only been one or two states that have a chance of one-party taking over the other, but with this did it -- citizen leg
john mccain got over 60 percent. that raises the threshold of the cross will reject crossover votes that he needs to survive. he is very much in the game. i think it will be tough to come -- overcome the top of the ticket impact. neveda, the type of district they should be challenging and. this is a clark county district. a place where democrats should be doing very well. democrats are having a troubled time. the democratic nominee is a former leader in the state house. even areas this...
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Nov 1, 2012
11/12
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john mccain carried that very narrowly. it was practically a 50-50 with obama. there's no way it's going to be that close this time. but i want to see what presented president obama gets in virginia beach. if the bows out of the water, that tells me something. if it's a close race, that tells me something. just a few examples. host: washington, d.c., on our independent line. caller: i am interested to know where you think independent voters are going to go in this election. terms ofean just in republican or democrat. how are the third party candidates going to affect the election? in particular, gary johnson? a lot of people tend to think he will take away votes from the republican nominee, but i think in new mexico and michigan he is taking votes away from obama. if you could give me some insight into what you think will happen there. guest: that is a good question because we tend to oversimplified about ibp and third-party candidates. we need to remember first of all some people turn out to vote for them that would not make a choice between the two major party
john mccain carried that very narrowly. it was practically a 50-50 with obama. there's no way it's going to be that close this time. but i want to see what presented president obama gets in virginia beach. if the bows out of the water, that tells me something. if it's a close race, that tells me something. just a few examples. host: washington, d.c., on our independent line. caller: i am interested to know where you think independent voters are going to go in this election. terms ofean just in...
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Oct 28, 2012
10/12
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as john mccain was four years ago spending the money that they spent. this is a close race in the sense that all states will be close and this will be a very divided electorate, but pennsylvania remains firmly in the president's call amanda will be delivered by the strong ground game have been building under the leadership of our outstanding democratic chairman and our great executive director. we know how to win elections in pennsylvania on the ground. we are a bottom up party. we understand how to pull it off and we will. iran host: table discussion on pennsylvania politics. josh shapiro is the chairman of the montgomery county board of commissioners, a democrat, and robert gleason, the chairman of the republican party in pennsylvania. we have a phone line set aside for those of you who live in the keystone state. from erie, pa., good morning. caller: good morning. i have two concerns. if you years back, i had a friend who was disabled in a wheelchair and i pushed him to the voting place of that he could register. we voted in the rain, on foot. he vot
as john mccain was four years ago spending the money that they spent. this is a close race in the sense that all states will be close and this will be a very divided electorate, but pennsylvania remains firmly in the president's call amanda will be delivered by the strong ground game have been building under the leadership of our outstanding democratic chairman and our great executive director. we know how to win elections in pennsylvania on the ground. we are a bottom up party. we understand...
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Nov 2, 2012
11/12
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another big names are appearing including condoleezza rice and senator john mccain this evening at 7:30 eastern and we will have that live on c-span. while we wait to hear from president obama in ohio, part of this morning's "washington journal," good morning to you. i want to assure you that 2012 battleground map we have been featuring for the last week or so here on the "washington journal." assuring the swing states in this election. this morning on the washington journal, we want to hear from the voters in the non-yellow states. everyone else in a blue, give us a call. we want to hear what you think about campaign 2012. our phone lines are open. we have already been getting a few comments on facebook. we want to start of christopher's from minnesota, he writes in, the electoral college needs to go away. john from maryland -- in other non-swing state writes -- my view is that the media has made too much out of the debates and hasn't focused enough of its energy on the ground with actual voters and personal stories. and finally, my goal from massachusetts writes, since my vote will
another big names are appearing including condoleezza rice and senator john mccain this evening at 7:30 eastern and we will have that live on c-span. while we wait to hear from president obama in ohio, part of this morning's "washington journal," good morning to you. i want to assure you that 2012 battleground map we have been featuring for the last week or so here on the "washington journal." assuring the swing states in this election. this morning on the washington...
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Oct 30, 2012
10/12
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four years ago, you did not see that a return rate amongst absentee among republicans for john mccain. host: on the ballot issues and bloomberg insider rights this a -- guest: the civil union issue, i think that is accurate, by the way. i have not see the civil union issue pop up in to the contras as of the average voter. on the margins, -- into the consciousness of the average voter. on the margins, it may pop up. although, it would traditionally break into the democratic party since they have been the sponsor of this type of legislation in the legislature. the predominant issue around the country is the economy. host: the bloomberg insider also reports -- guest: can we do a better job, absolutely. and we must do a better job for one to remain a relevant party on the national scene, and particularly in the west. the latino vote, the hispanic vote as we like to call that in the west, it had shifted toward the republicans under president and former colorado gov. bill once actually won the hispanic vote here in 2002. it began to slip away. we had some issues with one of our congressman,
four years ago, you did not see that a return rate amongst absentee among republicans for john mccain. host: on the ballot issues and bloomberg insider rights this a -- guest: the civil union issue, i think that is accurate, by the way. i have not see the civil union issue pop up in to the contras as of the average voter. on the margins, -- into the consciousness of the average voter. on the margins, it may pop up. although, it would traditionally break into the democratic party since they have...
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Nov 2, 2012
11/12
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john mccain carried that very narrowly. it was practically a 50-50 with obama. there's no way it's going to be that close this time. but i want to see what presented president obama gets in virginia beach. if the bows out of the water, that tells me something. if it's a close race, that tells me something. just a few examples. host: washington, d.c., on our independent line. caller: i am interested to know where you think independent voters are going to go in this election. i don't mean just in terms of republican or democrat. how are the third party candidates going to affect the election? in particular, gary johnson? a lot of people tend to think he will take away votes from the republican nominee, but i think in new mexico and michigan he is taking votes away from obama. if you could give me some insight into what you think will happen there. guest: that is a good question because we tend to oversimplified about independent and third-party candidates. we need to remember first of all some people turn out to vote for them that would not make a choice between t
john mccain carried that very narrowly. it was practically a 50-50 with obama. there's no way it's going to be that close this time. but i want to see what presented president obama gets in virginia beach. if the bows out of the water, that tells me something. if it's a close race, that tells me something. just a few examples. host: washington, d.c., on our independent line. caller: i am interested to know where you think independent voters are going to go in this election. i don't mean just in...
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Nov 2, 2012
11/12
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after the last campaign when john mccain won, i made this recording for my husband. "sweetie, i am never doing this again." he laughed. he said, "you say that after every pregnancy." true, true, and yet i have five boys. i will tell you when the fifth boy -- those are the days when you never knew what you were having -- when he popped out, i turned to mitt and said, "that is all i got." it was a long time waiting for the first granddaughter. i have five sons. you had a daughter. i have 18 grandchildren. guess how many are boys -- 13. i am surrounded. by the way, i have all brothers. i had to learn how to play football and baseball and play and roughhouse and everything else. life is interesting, and the boys taught me amazing lessons, and i appreciate them so much. i could have nearly killed them when they were kids, but they taught me how to be open and how to be open with your feelings and how to express your feelings openly. i was shy. the thought that i am even up here on the stage with a microphone in my hand is wonderful. i spent my entire elementary school nev
after the last campaign when john mccain won, i made this recording for my husband. "sweetie, i am never doing this again." he laughed. he said, "you say that after every pregnancy." true, true, and yet i have five boys. i will tell you when the fifth boy -- those are the days when you never knew what you were having -- when he popped out, i turned to mitt and said, "that is all i got." it was a long time waiting for the first granddaughter. i have five sons. you...
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Nov 4, 2012
11/12
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eye 140
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caller: i voted for john mccain. guest: there is a difference between pollsters and the republican polls. when we are wrong in our numbers, our clients lose and we do not get new clients. we are careful in how we are analyzing the survey. with the public polls, they have a different goal. the more they generate stories, the better it is. we have moved back to a 2004. so many of our stories are generated by pulling numbers as opposed to being generated by the campaign. i differ in terms of controlling on party. they do not control for party. you have seen in a short period of time, party edification jumping a good chance " -- 10 points. you are generating a story rather than generating reality in terms of polling. all of the polls start coming back to the center. that is with the averaging does work. as you get closer to the election, surveys have a new ones because of the weighting on party. in 2008, we ended up with five poles that were exactly the same -- polls that were exactly the same. guest: has citizen united
caller: i voted for john mccain. guest: there is a difference between pollsters and the republican polls. when we are wrong in our numbers, our clients lose and we do not get new clients. we are careful in how we are analyzing the survey. with the public polls, they have a different goal. the more they generate stories, the better it is. we have moved back to a 2004. so many of our stories are generated by pulling numbers as opposed to being generated by the campaign. i differ in terms of...
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Oct 31, 2012
10/12
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carey in 2004 and john mccain in 2008, the only district that slipped from democratic to republican in between those two elections. was are the voters president wants, clinging to their guns and religion, the kind of white working-class workers that the president is having the most trouble connecting with. the obama campaign is advertising as well. they have a turnout machine in philadelphia. pacs don't want the obama campaign to gin up their turnout machine. i think that machine will start to get engaged and that machine will drive president obama's margin down there. that's in southeastern pennsylvania. host: we're talking about an october surprise in campaign 2012 and the history of it. this on twitter -- guest: she's probably right. many people aboard a voted. there is 1 weeks ago. the average american is paying attention to something other than politics, whether it's their own economic situation or recovering from storm damage in a swing state like virginia or new hampshire. -- many people have voted already. ballistics of trying to get around the place after a storm can be a r
carey in 2004 and john mccain in 2008, the only district that slipped from democratic to republican in between those two elections. was are the voters president wants, clinging to their guns and religion, the kind of white working-class workers that the president is having the most trouble connecting with. the obama campaign is advertising as well. they have a turnout machine in philadelphia. pacs don't want the obama campaign to gin up their turnout machine. i think that machine will start to...
137
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Nov 1, 2012
11/12
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john mccain carried that very narrowly. it was practically a 50-50 with obama. there's no way it's going to be that close this time. but i want to see what presented president obama gets in virginia beach. if the bows out of the water, that tells me something. if it's a close race, that tells me something. just a few examples. host: washington, d.c., on our independent line. caller: i am interested to know where you think independent voters are going to go in this election. i don't mean just in terms of republican or democrat. how are the third party candidates going to affect the election? in particular, gary johnson? a lot of people tend to think he will take away votes from the republican nominee, but i think in new mexico and michigan he is taking votes away from obama. if you could give me some insight into what you think will happen there. guest: that is a good question because we tend to oversimplified about independent and third-party candidates. we need to remember first of all some people turn out to vote for them that would not make a choice between t
john mccain carried that very narrowly. it was practically a 50-50 with obama. there's no way it's going to be that close this time. but i want to see what presented president obama gets in virginia beach. if the bows out of the water, that tells me something. if it's a close race, that tells me something. just a few examples. host: washington, d.c., on our independent line. caller: i am interested to know where you think independent voters are going to go in this election. i don't mean just in...
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Nov 2, 2012
11/12
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eye 107
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also joining them is condoleezza rice and senator john mccain. that is at 7:30 on c-span. the amount we have to create an environment that our small businesses can thrive. when we look at the uniqueness on the border different from the reform metered -- needed, we need comprehensive immigration reform. we have a work force problem because of our immigration system is broken. we cannot get workers to go back and forth. these problems create an impediment to commerce. we have to provide a workforce that can move back and forth easily, and now we cannot do that because of the impediments that are there by not having an effective immigration policy. that becomes an economic issue. >> some of the issues have to do with what was raised here with regard to be near the border, seasonal work that comes on, and being susceptible to a national trend when it comes to the economy. we need to do things desperately yuma. yuma, one thing we have to avoid is the sequestration that is looming at the end of the year that will hurt our military readiness. for an area yuma, it would be devasta
also joining them is condoleezza rice and senator john mccain. that is at 7:30 on c-span. the amount we have to create an environment that our small businesses can thrive. when we look at the uniqueness on the border different from the reform metered -- needed, we need comprehensive immigration reform. we have a work force problem because of our immigration system is broken. we cannot get workers to go back and forth. these problems create an impediment to commerce. we have to provide a...
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Nov 1, 2012
11/12
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after the last campaign when john mccain won, made this recording for my husband. sweetie, i am never doing this again. he laughed. he said say that after every pregnancy. true, true, and yet i have five boys. i will tell you when the fifth boy -- those are the days when you never knew when you were having -- when he popped out, i said that ist and all i got. it was a long time waiting for the first granddaughter. i have five sons. you had a daughter. i have 18 grandchildren. guess how many are boys -- 13. i am surrounded. by the way i have all brothers. i had to learn how to play football and baseball, and play and roughhouse and everything else. life is interesting, and the boys taught me an amazing lessons, and i appreciate them so much. i could have nearly killed them when they were kids, but they taught me how to be open and how to be open with your feelings and how to express your feelings openly. i was shy. the thought that i am even up here on the stage with a microphone in my hand is wonderful. i spent my entire elementary school never saying one word, and
after the last campaign when john mccain won, made this recording for my husband. sweetie, i am never doing this again. he laughed. he said say that after every pregnancy. true, true, and yet i have five boys. i will tell you when the fifth boy -- those are the days when you never knew when you were having -- when he popped out, i said that ist and all i got. it was a long time waiting for the first granddaughter. i have five sons. you had a daughter. i have 18 grandchildren. guess how many are...
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89
Oct 30, 2012
10/12
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eye 89
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four years ago, you did not see that a return rate amongst absentee among republicans for john mccain. host: on the ballot issues and bloomberg insider rights this a -- guest: the civil union issue, i think that is accurate, by the way. i have not see the civil union issue pop up in to the contras as of the average voter. on the margins, -- into the consciousness of the average voter. on the margins, it may pop up. although, it would traditionally break into the democratic party since they have been the sponsor of this type of legislation in the legislature. the predominant issue around the country is the economy. host: the bloomberg insider also reports -- guest: can we do a better job, absolutely. and we must do a better job for one to remain a relevant party on the national scene, and particularly in the west. the latino vote, the hispanic vote as we like to call that in the west, it had shifted toward the republicans under president and former colorado gov. bill once actually won the hispanic vote here in 2002. it began to slip away. we had some issues with one of our congressman,
four years ago, you did not see that a return rate amongst absentee among republicans for john mccain. host: on the ballot issues and bloomberg insider rights this a -- guest: the civil union issue, i think that is accurate, by the way. i have not see the civil union issue pop up in to the contras as of the average voter. on the margins, -- into the consciousness of the average voter. on the margins, it may pop up. although, it would traditionally break into the democratic party since they have...
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Nov 3, 2012
11/12
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cindy mccain. john mccain. ob mcdonnell. rick perry. rince priebus. martha roy. rick santorum. aaron shock. jim tallant. john thune. pat tome. scott walker. mike turner. steve chabis. from the great state of ohio, mary tyalor. mary taylor. >> four more years! four more years! >> are we ready to do everything we can in ohio 2 elective mitt romney and paul ryan, the next president and vice president of the united states? [cheers and applause] as always, a great crowd of the intro west chester, ohio. this is outstanding. i have done a lot of great rallies over the last couple of weeks. i have three simple reasons. i would like to go through them quickly with you. president obama comes to ohio and likes to take credit for getting our state to back on track. we know that is not true. it is the work governor kasich and i have done with to balance the budget and get our state back on track. but we did not raise taxes. we cut taxes. here is my second reason. this one is personal for me. my youngest son is 18 years old and he voted for the first time this year in a presidential election
cindy mccain. john mccain. ob mcdonnell. rick perry. rince priebus. martha roy. rick santorum. aaron shock. jim tallant. john thune. pat tome. scott walker. mike turner. steve chabis. from the great state of ohio, mary tyalor. mary taylor. >> four more years! four more years! >> are we ready to do everything we can in ohio 2 elective mitt romney and paul ryan, the next president and vice president of the united states? [cheers and applause] as always, a great crowd of the intro west...
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Oct 27, 2012
10/12
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they are not going to lose by the same margins that john mccain did, even in a place like illinois, where mccain lost some of these districts by 20 points. that's not going to happen this year, so you can see those numbers going up, even in states that romney will lose, but because some of the states are completely off the map, places like pennsylvania, michigan, that means his pathway again has to go through a place like colorado, nevada, or ohio. >> you know, one of the problems with writing a column a couple times a week is you're sort of on the record, and a fewer months ago, i wrote a column and i was talking about all these people that are spinning so much time parsing together combinations of electoral votes, like they were trying to solve a rubics cube or something and i pointed out that in 53 out of knife 6 presidential election -- 56 presidential electionings, the popular vote and electoral vote went the same way and that works out to 95%. could it happen? of course it could happen but it's very, very unlikely, but now, i think that there's a fair chance of that, and if that hap
they are not going to lose by the same margins that john mccain did, even in a place like illinois, where mccain lost some of these districts by 20 points. that's not going to happen this year, so you can see those numbers going up, even in states that romney will lose, but because some of the states are completely off the map, places like pennsylvania, michigan, that means his pathway again has to go through a place like colorado, nevada, or ohio. >> you know, one of the problems with...
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153
Nov 1, 2012
11/12
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republicans say that romney's team is far ahead of what senator john mccain had in place for years ago. but the extent of the organization and voter contact for the rahm the folks is miles ahead of where mccain was. there is no comparison. given there was a tough primary fight there for the republicans, that possibly they have a better ground game in place than the democrats. guest: that is not true. the democrats and president obama have been on the ground since the primary ended in february. the classic story was he drove through manchester and was locked, shut and the sides were down. the obama campaign was up and running. in knocking on doors, making phone calls. engaged in voter contacts for months and months before the obama campaign came back to new hampshire. i would say the republicans are talking of a good ground game, but the reality is the obama ground game is much better, and that will be a crucial factor when obama wins here next tuesday. host: given that obama won the state in 2008 by nine percentage points, and the economy is not that bad in new hampshire compared to ot
republicans say that romney's team is far ahead of what senator john mccain had in place for years ago. but the extent of the organization and voter contact for the rahm the folks is miles ahead of where mccain was. there is no comparison. given there was a tough primary fight there for the republicans, that possibly they have a better ground game in place than the democrats. guest: that is not true. the democrats and president obama have been on the ground since the primary ended in february....